When we think about potential candidates to win the second most prestigious title in physique-based sports we often look to the favorites, but one competitor who largely goes unnoticed is Brazil’s Rafael Brandao.
Here’s a bodybuilder who has been knocking on the proverbial door for at least a few years. He’s amassed quite a resume, including a Top 3 at the 2024 Arnold USA. That’s no small feat especially considering the fact he shared the Top 3 with guys like Hadi Choopan and Samson Dauda. Rafael has also finally surpassed the 300lb mark in the off-season. He’s won shows in Romania and Brazil and he continues to set his sights on the top spots in the sport. The fact that he’s been invited back to the ASC is also notable because they can invite pretty much anyone they want. Who’s going to pass up the opportunity to make more money than even at the Olympia? Plus, this is Arnold’s show.
Everyone who has ever competed in bodybuilding wants The Oak to take a pic with them. They want to be congratulated by the former governor of California on stage in front of millions all around the world. And for someone who has placed Top 3, it’s a goal so close that Brandao can probably taste it. With the 2026 Arnold just around the corner, the pundits are giving the towering Brazilian second and third looks. Plus, Derek nor Samson will be competing so that opens up a far more reachable path. That said, there’s still Martin, Nick, and a handful of other threats besides Hadi that Rafael will have to defeat. The question is, can he?
I would say that Rafael Brandao has more than paid his dues and has competed in front of countless judging panels. He understands that each show is unique. As Bob Cicherillo often says, bodybuilding is a sport of “apples and oranges.” You never know what the judges are looking for, but you always want to pose hard.
Big lessons can be learned from guys who had the winning physique on game day, but either because of humility or stage fright, didn’t showcase it for the judges. At a contest, that panel has the final word. It doesn’t matter how loud the fans cheer or how many photos get snapped, you’re not posing for the fans or the photographers! You’re posing for the individuals who write on the scorecards. You have to make sure that all the judges see. There’s judges to the right and there’s judges to the left. Just posing for the head judge in the middle can be a costly mistake. The good news is the athletes don’t have to go to them. The whole purpose of the prejudging and the confirmation round is so that the judges can see each competitor. Rafael is a seasoned pro that understands the value in this. Some guys start to fade the more they’re compared. The truly seasoned guys go into a contest expecting the judges to scrutinize them. The more comparisons there are – the better! If were an easy process, then it’d either be because one guy is far superior in a crowd of bums – or – maybe everyone sucks that day. The best shows are where the prejudging and comparison rounds drag on and on – and then on for some more!
I would expect nothing less at the Arnold Classic. That being said, there have been some weaker years than others. Without taking anything away from Rafael’s stellar placing in Columbus in 2024, I’d say that even without Samson and Derek present, the 2026 lineup looks far deeper. This is not to say that Rafael won’t be Top 3 again. It’s also not to say that he can’t win the whole thing, but it’s going to be tougher to do. And here’s why.
You guys know I’m a huge Martin Fitzwater fan. I don’t think anyone isn’t aware of that. Martin placed Top 5 at the Olympia, he beat Samson in Prague, and he’s coming into the Arnold as the man to win it all. I, personally, think he can best Hadi and if he can do that, there’s no one else who I think is a major concern. I also happen to think that Martin could have placed higher than Andrew at the Olympia, if that tells you anything. But Rafael could be that wildcard factor. He’s got a beautiful physique, improved wheels and back, and he’s grown over the years. Usually guys reach a point, a milestone like placing Top 3 in Columbus and then they become complacent. That’s not the case with Rafael. He’s consistently made gains and keeps moving up the rankings. He’s also not a guy who has competed endlessly which means his body isn’t on the verge of burning out. There also aren’t glaring injuries to worry about.
I’d say Martin could be a potential obstacle to Rafael winning, but not Hadi. Hadi has actually been on the receiving end of some lowkey criticism from the most popular bodybuilding outlets. At a time when site enhancing oils and PMMA are hot button issues, people are starting to look to The Persian Wolf and he’s being included more and more in these conversations. That said, I’m not making any accusations. I mean who can forget when Hadi hinted at possibly suing Dave Palumbo of RX Muscle for suggesting he was blasting bodyparts. It’s not that I’m walking on eggshells due to the fact of potentially being sued, but I don’t know one way or another if Choopan warrants having a flammable caution sign on his person. The fact is, in America, you can use a ham sandwich. The point is, Hadi isn’t getting a lot of love from the media. And in all seriousness, I have never been a fan of his physique. He’s a midget with way more muscle than even a juiced to the gills bodybuilder should have. It’s not a good look. Rafael on the hand has what I’d call a truly artistic physique, like Martin, Andrew, and Brandon Curry.
One guy who’s adored by the press, but who is basically a great bodybuilder on paper and ad campaigns is Nick Walker. While there’s no love lost between us, I don’t wish him anything bad, I just don’t think he warrants all the hype. I have no doubt Rafael can beat Nick, just like Martin can, Brandon should and Hadi will.
The big question is where will Rafael place? Can he win the whole show? I definitely think so. One YouTuber – the most popular of all – Nick’s Strength And Power has even chimed in with super vocal support for Brandao going into the Arnold. That’s very significant as well. Where do you think Rafael will place? I’m going to go with 4th – which is an amazing placing, but given this lineup, that’s where I see him.
As always, thank you for reading my article, here, at IronMag. I look forward to reading your feedback in the comments. Please be sure to copy and paste a link to this article on all your social media feeds. It’s bound to generate lively conversation.
Author Bio:
Christian I. Duque is the owner StrengthAddicts.com, a physique and strength website founded in 2008. He has worked for a number of bodybuilding websites, including RX Muscle and Muscular Development. Christian has written nearly 1,000 published articles for Iron Magazine, as well as articles for StrengthAddicts, RX Muscle, and others. By day, he is also a licensed attorney practicing in the areas of family law, immigration, and criminal defense.
